The North Korean nuclear test by forcing China and against the United States and Japan can reap prof-cashmere mafia

The North Korean nuclear test by forcing China and against the United States and Japan itself can reap profits from the U.S. B52 cruise the Korean Peninsula North Korea forced the fourth nuclear test and launch after the sudden tension in the Korean peninsula. The United States continued to increase military presence in Northeast Asia, not only from nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, also sent B-52 bombers and F-22 stealth fighter, while stepping up to promote the deployment of Sade anti missile system in South korea. In this situation, North Korea still does not give up the provocative posture, but also claimed to launch more "satellite", and may be able to implement the submarine launched missile test America direct combat, does not seem to provoke the United States completely dogged. The Korean proverb called "whale fight, small shrimp". But in international politics, North Korea this proverb explains: if whale himself fights, but the living space of small shrimp. During the Sino Japanese War, power between the Choson rulers hope in Russia on seeking survival space. More recently, some of the cold war, North Korea too. On the current situation, the strategic goal of North Korea can not in tied with bombs and South Korea together, not to provoke a new war in the peninsula and achieve victory in the war, and may be that China and Russia was forced to confrontation with the United States and South Korea on the Korean peninsula. If the Korean Peninsula confrontation stalemate to reproduce as they did during the cold war, because the North Korean nuclear test has become a target for all but is no longer the main target, it can also reap profits from the. However, looking back the wheel of history, let the Korean Peninsula back to that rivalry is only wishful thinking. To stop the Korean nuclear development, South Korea is not the only war on this road. Because in the event of an open war, both parties who may not be the real winner. Political diplomacy, economic sanctions, international public opinion condemnation are likely to force North Korea to return to the negotiating table, re negotiation of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Chinese associated with the United States, Russia and South Korea and other parties have conducted close communication, the parties agree that sanctions are not the goal, eventually should return to the track of negotiations. Similarly, in the premise of the denuclearization of the peninsula, North Korea’s concern about its security should be the concern of the international community. As a result, North Korea will also have to stop the war and peace building homes desire. Recently, the Korean Peninsula, worsening the security situation. South Korea and North Korea, the two sides at loggerheads, turmoil is the danger of war. Just increase the risk of war, does not mean that the war is imminent. The author believes that now the situation judgment, stop the war, to prevent turmoil war is still the mainstream in the development of the Korean Peninsula situation. First, as a responsible regional power Chinese has been through a variety of ways to convey to the outside world: one is that no matter what the circumstances are not a nuclear Peninsula; two can not solve the problem by force; three is not harm the national security interests China. The China stance is not only stay in the oral warning, South Korea or North Korea or any Chinese people rioted in the door is not allowed. The peninsula after the crisis, Chinese one hand hold the hand to actively negotiate North Korea, South Korea expressed opposition to the United States to deploy "Sade" protection, Chinese strategic interests, is to.

朝鲜借核试验迫使中国与美日对抗 自身可从中渔利 美军B52巡航朝鲜半岛   朝鲜强行进行第四次核试验和火箭发射后,朝鲜半岛局势骤然紧张。美国不断加大在东北亚地区的军事部署,不但开来核潜艇、航母,还派来B-52战略轰炸机和F-22隐形战斗机,同时加紧推动在韩国部署“萨德”反导系统。面对这种形势,朝鲜仍不放弃挑衅架势,声称还要发射更多“卫星”,并且可能实施能够针对美国本土直接作战的潜射导弹试验,似乎不把美国彻底激怒誓不罢休。   朝鲜有句谚语叫做“鲸鱼打架,虾米遭殃”。但在国际政治中,朝鲜对这句谚语的解释却是:如果鲸鱼只顾自己打架,虾米反而有了生存空间。甲午战争时期,朝鲜李氏王朝统治者就希冀在中俄日的大国夹缝中觅求生存空间。更晚近些的冷战时期,朝鲜也是如此。就当下局势来看,朝鲜的战略目标也绝不是要在身上绑满炸弹与美韩同归于尽,不是要在半岛挑起新的战争并求得在战争中取胜,而可能是希望中俄被迫出手在朝鲜半岛与美日韩对抗。如果朝鲜半岛重现冷战时期那样的胶着对峙状态,因核试验而成为众矢之的的朝鲜反而不再是主要目标,它又可从中渔利了。   不过,期盼历史车轮倒转、让朝鲜半岛重回那种对抗格局只能是一厢情愿。在制止朝鲜核发展方面,美韩并非只有挑起战争这一条路。因为万一战端一开,双方谁都未必是真正的赢家。政治外交、经济制裁、国际舆论一致谴责都有可能迫使朝鲜回到谈判桌前,重新进行朝鲜半岛无核化的协商。中国与美国、俄罗斯和韩国等相关各方都进行了密切沟通,各方均赞同制裁不是目的,最终还是应回到谈判解决的轨道。同样,在半岛无核化的前提下,朝鲜对自身安全的关切也应得到国际社会关注。这样一来,朝鲜当然也会有制止战争、和平建设家园的愿望。   近期以来,朝鲜半岛安全局势趋于恶化。美韩和朝鲜双方剑拔弩张,确有生乱生战的危险。只是战争风险加大了,并不等于战争已经迫在眉睫。笔者认为,就眼下局势判断,制止战争、防止朝鲜半岛生乱生战仍是形势发展的主流。   第一,作为负责任区域大国的中国已通过各种方式向外界传达:一是不管什么情况下半岛都不能有核;二是不能用武力解决问题;三是不能损害中国国家安全利益。中国的原则立场并非仅是停留在口头上的警告,美韩也好,朝鲜也好,任何人在中国的门前闹事都是不被允许的。半岛危机发生后,中国一方面稳住朝鲜积极交涉,一方面向美韩表达反对美国借机部署“萨德”、保护中国战略利益,就是为了防止事态进一步扩大。在朝核问题上,美国需要改变既要求中国与其合作又谋求在韩国部署“萨德”这种自相矛盾的做法。另外,朝鲜半岛局势也关系到周边大国俄罗斯的切身利益,俄罗斯也会全力制止战乱发生。   第二,客观而言,保持朝鲜半岛和平稳定现状符合朝核问题所有相关各方的根本利益。但以朝鲜的核试验和火箭发射为发端,东北亚局势被搅乱了。美国借机加强在韩国的军备力量部署,完全超出防御朝鲜所需,这也是导致半岛生乱生战的根源。因此,遏制朝鲜继续研制核武器和战略导弹的能力,同时使美国回到战略军备的原点,是缓和局势的关键。相信朝鲜周边大国会动用政治、外交、经济、军事等一切手段解决这个关键问题。   第三,在联合国框架下和平解决朝核问题的可能性依然存在,相关各方也没放弃恢复六方会谈机制的努力,和平解决半岛危机也是当前国际社会比较一致的呼声。另外,在全球政治以及世界经济体系中,朝核问题相关各方、尤其是几个大国之间还有非常紧密的战略性合作和经济互补的一面。而如果朝鲜半岛真的爆发战争,东北亚乃至更大范围的地区格局都可能被打破,对于世界政治、经济局势来说,那将是谁都无法承受的灾难性后果。   当然,我们说朝鲜半岛目前不大可能全面爆发战争,并非否认半岛切实存在的紧张局势以及存在爆发军事冲突的危险。朝鲜与美韩目前都须保持克制,避免相互挑衅言行或过激反应。另外,我们未雨绸缪做好应对朝鲜半岛局势恶化的相关准备也确有必要,因为这样做反而更能促使朝核问题各方保持冷静,增加朝鲜半岛维持和平的筹码。相关的主题文章: